Data-driven ocean governance

As climate change strains traditional growth models and land-based resources come under mounting pressure, Pakistan starts turning to the sea for economic renewal. Its oceans, rivers and coastline, long treated as peripheral to national planning, are now being reframed as strategic assets capable of driving sustainable growth under the banner of the blue economy. In this context, Minister for Maritime Affairs Muhammad Junaid Anwar Chaudhry has articulated a long-term vision anchored in a $100 billion maritime development plan by expanding ports, establishment of a modern ship repair and recycling facilities, comprehensive reforms in the fisheries sector and significant upgrades to maritime education and training positioning Pakistan a competetive economy by 2047.An International economist Ahmad Mukhtar, writing in The Express Tribune in March 2025, placed the blue economy’s contribution at between 1.5 and 3 per cent of GDP. With coherent planning and sustained investment, he argued, this share could rise to 10–15 per cent in the coming decades.

Shipping alone could generate $8–10 billion annually by the early 2030s, while fisheries and aquaculture might add another $17–18 billion. Maritime tourism, offshore renewable energy and the ship recycling industry at Gadani could collectively push total blue economy revenues beyond $40 billion.The concept of the blue economy itself is relatively new. A 2021 study in the Journal of Global Peace and Security Studies traces its origins to the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development in Rio de Janeiro, where it emerged as a framework for balancing ocean-based economic activity with environmental protection. For Pakistan, home to more than 1,000-kilometre coastline and an Exclusive Economic Zone larger than its landmass, the approach offers a pathway to reconcile growth with conservation.A key enabler of this transition can be environmental DNA (eDNA), an emerging scientific tool that allows researchers to detect species by analysing genetic material shed into water through skin cells, scales or waste. Without capturing or disturbing organisms, scientists can build detailed pictures of biodiversity, ecosystem health and pollution impacts.Global experience suggests eDNA can significantly strengthen blue economy governance. The United States Bureau of Ocean Energy Management describes it as a powerful, non-invasive monitoring tool that improves the information base for fisheries management, marine protected areas and ecosystem-based planning that are core pillars of a sustainable blue economy. While eDNA does not create economic value directly, it enables better decisions that underpin long-term returns.A 2025 review by Malaysian author Ghazanfer Ali, published in PubMed Central, explicitly framed eDNA as a “next-generation conservation strategy” for Pakistan, particularly for freshwater ecosystems facing climate stress. With appropriate scaling, the same approach could extend to coastal and marine environments.In July 2025, an Australian federal marine parks agency reported that an $11.8 million project, supported by Parks Australia and the Minderoo Foundation, had generated one of the world’s largest marine eDNA datasets, spanning tropical reefs to depths of 6,000 metres. Europe, too, is moving ahead as eight countries are participating in citizen-led eDNA campaigns, while EU pilot projects are refining protocols for reef fish monitoring.Despite its vast marine assets, Pakistan’s coastal economy has been held back by decades of overfishing, pollution, habitat loss and weak governance. Traditional biodiversity surveys are costly, slow and often unreliable due to rough seas, poor visibility and the presence of elusive species.Marine scientists argue that eDNA can change this equation. “It offers a non-invasive, cost-effective and scientifically robust way to understand what’s happening underwater, almost in real time,” says a marine biologist at Karachi University. “For a country with limited marine research capacity, this is transformative.”Pakistan has already seen success with eDNA in freshwater settings. A study published by Nature Portfolio in April 2022 showed that Pakistani researchers, led by Muhammad Saeed, developed species-specific eDNA protocols that detected the rare Hazara Torrent Frog more effectively than visual surveys. Conservationists believe similar applications along the Arabian Sea could yield unprecedented insights into marine biodiversity.Neighbouring countries are already using eDNA to inform zoning reforms, stock assessments and sustainable aquaculture. Reports from regional aquaculture forums show how such data-driven management has helped competitors in Asia move up the value chain, an area where Pakistan still lags.Shah Mehran, Manager R&D at Friends Food Export Company, believes seafood exports could reach $2 billion within four years. Exports to the United States alone could rise from a negligible base to $500 million annually if hygienic and ecological conditions improve, an outcome supported by better monitoring tools like eDNA, according to the US Geological Survey.Beyond fisheries, eDNA is increasingly being used to assess biodiversity in blue carbon ecosystems including mangroves, seagrasses and salt marshes that store large amounts of carbon. Pakistan is home to the world’s seventh-largest mangrove forest, concentrated in the Indus Delta. In a message on International Day for the Conservation of Mangrove Ecosystem in July, Federal Maritime Affairs Minister Muhammad Junaid Anwar Chaudhry noted that these mangroves could generate $20–50 million annually, depending on market conditions, but face threats from pollution and illegal harvesting.Reliable biodiversity data is essential for accessing international blue carbon markets. Reports in Carbon Pulse and Business Recorder warn that Pakistan’s multi-billion-dollar carbon credit potential is at risk without robust measurement, reporting and verification systems. Conference proceedings from the International Blue Carbon and Wetlands Conference 2025 highlight eDNA as a tool that can strengthen the credibility of blue carbon claims.Pakistan needs to integrate eDNA into the Blue Economy Policy and establish public-private laboratories, link monitoring requirements to coastal development permits, and share data through global platforms such as the Ocean Biodiversity Information System to fill the policy gap on eDNA technology.From fisheries and shipping to blue carbon and coastal tourism, data-driven ocean governance can offer Pakistan a rare chance to unlock sustainable growth by 2047.