Record Ocean Warming Raises Climate Risks for Pakistan

The world’s oceans have reached an unprecedented level of warmth, providing another stark indicator of the accelerating climate crisis.

On 22 August 2026, the global average sea-surface temperature across the extra-polar oceans reached a record 21.1°C, narrowly surpassing the previous record of 21.09°C set in March 2024, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

More than 90% of the excess energy accumulated in the climate system since the 1970s has been stored in the ocean, making the ocean the Earth’s primary absorber of excess heat.

The consequences are particularly important for Asia and the Arabian Sea, where ocean temperatures interact with monsoon circulation and large-scale climate phenomena such as El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

These interactions can alter rainfall patterns and increase the risk of climate extremes.The World Meteorological Organization’s Global Seasonal Climate Update, issued on 31 July, says a strong El Niño is developing and expected to strengthen during August–October 2026.

It also forecasts the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, with above-normal temperatures expected across much of the world and significant shifts in rainfall patterns.

WMO cautions that these oceanic drivers can amplify risks including droughts and floods, particularly around the Indian Ocean basin.For Pakistan, the warming Arabian Sea is particularly significant.

Warmer seawater can increase evaporation and atmospheric moisture and influence storm intensity and rainfall.

Pakistan’s Space 4 Climate reports that satellite observations from 2003 to 2025 show warming of 0.7°C to more than 3°C in parts of the Northern Arabian Sea and Pakistan’s coastal waters.

It says the warming is placing marine ecosystems under stress, affecting fish distribution, breeding cycles and fisheries productivity, while also weakening mangroves and coral communities.

Ocean warming also contributes to sea-level rise through thermal expansion, alongside the addition of water from melting glaciers and ice sheets. NASA identifies both processes as the principal causes of observed global sea-level rise.

Read More: Data-driven ocean governance

For Pakistan, this increases the vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas to flooding, erosion and storm surges.These risks are already evident in the Indus Delta.

A 2023 study found substantial coastal erosion, increasing salinity and mangrove degradation in parts of the delta.

The study reported particularly severe erosion in the Western, Middle West and Middle East Delta and linked the wider deterioration of the delta ecosystem to reduced sediment flows, water infrastructure and climate change.

Across Asia, warmer oceans are contributing to a climate environment in which extreme rainfall and storms can become more intense, while changes in ocean-atmosphere circulation can increase drought risks in other regions.

The contrasting effects underline the importance of viewing the Arabian Sea not in isolation, but as part of the wider Indian Ocean climate system.Ocean warming also threatens one of the climate system’s important natural carbon buffers.

The IPCC finds that warming of the surface ocean and declining buffering capacity under higher-emissions scenarios will slow the growth of the ocean CO₂ sink after 2050.

A weaker ocean carbon sink would reduce the ocean’s capacity to absorb additional carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

For Pakistan, protecting the Indus Delta’s mangroves and other coastal ecosystems is therefore both an environmental and climate-resilience priority.

Mangroves provide important fish habitat, store carbon and help reduce exposure to waves and storm surges. Their conservation should consequently be treated not only as biodiversity protection, but also as a strategy for climate adaptation, coastal resilience and sustainable blue-economy development.